Global Changes in Livestock Stocking Rates: Drivers and Consequences for the Earth-System

Drylands cover more than 45% of the terrestrial surface of our planet, represent home for 30% of the human population and support 50% of global livestock. Our recent analysis of publications in scientific journals shows that Drylands are perceived as degraded by overgrazing. In the last 25 years, there have been an order magnitude more publications on overgrazing than on reductions of stocking rates and land abandonment. In contrast, our global study showed that rangelands producing 45% of global livestock indeed showed a decreased in stocking rates. Trends in reductions and increases in stocking rates during the last 25 years do not reflect changes in climate, trade or meat per capita demand. Drivers of this striking trend are related to patterns of global wealth. Regions with the highest GDP per capita and lowest population growth are experiencing rapid destocking. On the contrary, the other half of the world shows significant increases in stocking rates. 

We are interested in further studying the consequences of these changes in stocking rates for the Earth system. This novel pattern and its consequences should influence how we think about managing areas where stocking rates are decreasing or increasing. The effects of decreasing stocking rates are not going to have just the opposite effects of increasing stocking rates because there are well-documented non-linearities and state transitions. A new understanding of the destocking phenomenon and its consequences is necessary to design different management strategies for areas where stocking rates are decreasing from those where it is increasing.